Trends & Forecasts

SPECIAL REPORT—For decades China achieved double digit growth rates. And in the last 30 years, the country lifted 500 million people out of poverty, the World Bank says. Today, China is the world’s largest manufacturer and exporter, and the second largest economy. However, its future is not so clear. In the coming years, the Middle...

SPECIAL REPORT—The political upheaval that erupted after President Viktor Yanukovych opted against signing an association agreement with the EU in November 2013 escalated sharply in February, and the situation is spiraling out of control, with serious negative implications for Ukraine’s already poor risk profile. Yanukovych has fled the country, taking refuge in Russia, while Moscow […]

International trade is anticipated to expand by 4.5 percent this year and 5.2 percent in 2015.(1) This is supported by the world’s growing middle class, whose numbers are projected to rise by one billion by 2020, and whose purchasing power will more than double by 2030.(2) But will America’s ports be able to handle the...

Did Harry Reid kill the trade agenda? The Senate Majority Leader is no champion of economic freedom to be sure, but his opposition to the fast track bill (trade promotion authority) doesn’t kill it. It merely strengthens the hand of his colleagues who might support a more protectionist version of the legislation. It’s an invitation...

Political risk has increased significantly since the eruption of a corruption scandal in mid-December 2013. Triggered by the detention of more than two dozen suspects, including the sons of two Cabinet ministers on charges of graft related to questionable real estate deals, the scandal has breathed new life into a popular anti-government movement that had […]

In the space of just 13 months, President Enrique Peña Nieto has accomplished more in terms of economic reform than his two immediate predecessors managed in 12 years. Although the so-called Pact for Mexico — the broad alliance of the president’s PRI, the conservative PAN, and the center-left PRD — is effectively a dead letter, […]

In November 2013, the top leaders of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) unveiled an ambitious roadmap for economic and social reforms to be implemented by 2020. The policy strategy hammered out by the CCP’s Central Committee is the strongest signal yet of President Xi Jinping’s commitment to replacing the existing export- and investment-focused economic […]

President Obama has made it clear that he is no advocate of fossil fuels. He has gone to war against coal and refuses to allow drilling on most federal lands for oil. Despite this lack of support, the United States actually has a surplus of crude oil and natural gas. Domestic production is way up […]

With the United States coming off of a certain degree of economic turmoil, rising wages in China, and industrial production decline in Europe, many executives in the U.S. have begun looking back home for manufacturing. As a result, American manufacturing is experiencing a bit of resurgence. Here is a look at U.S. cities experiencing a […]

The turmoil that erupted in Juba last month threatens to ignite a full scale ethnic civil war. If peace talks fail, a potential genocide may even result. Certainly, political risks for foreign investors and neighboring governments would increase under such circumstances. Given South Sudan’s position as a regional oil producing country, a civil war would […]

Park Geun-hye’s first year in office was a bumpy one, marked by disruptive political scandals, worrisome tensions in relations with North Korea, and back-tracking on key components of her signature “economic democratization” agenda that have weakened her popularity and undermined her credibility. This new year is unlikely to be any easier, even assuming the continued […]

Portugal’s Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho’s coalition government continues to hold together despite tensions generated by the negative impact of austerity-fatigue on popular support for both the prime minister’s PSD and its junior partner, the CDS-PP. The partner’s resolve has been reinforced by signs of economic improvement, including a revival of tourism and exports that […]

On December 10, the Nicaraguan Congress approved a package of more than three dozen changes to the constitution. President Daniel Ortega claims the reforms will lay the foundation for a system of “direct democracy.” But the president’s critics contend that the result will be the perpetuation of Ortega’s hold on the presidency and the further […]

The United States is experiencing an energy revolution that is having a tremendous impact on business. Moving forward, this is projected to boost corporate competitiveness, manufacturing output, employment, and exports, as well as household income. And this new “gold rush” is catapulting new American energy to the top of global charts, while continuing to reduce...

Parliamentary elections in Iraq are scheduled for April 2014. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s Shiite-dominated State of Law party is leading in the polls, having made up some ground after a disappointing performance earlier in local elections. Following the vote, Maliki is likely to be granted first crack at forming a coalition government. But the chances […]

In a recent Reuters op-ed, Council on Foreign Relations’ scholar Edward Alden lavished praise on the Obama administration for “quietly embrac[ing] the most ambitious agenda on trade and investment liberalization in the past two decades.” Ted’s take evokes this Washington Post article from last March, in which Howard Schneider noted the emergence of a robust...

projections for nearly every emerging market and developing country have been reduced in recent months. At the same time, the prospects of many advanced economies, including the U.S., have improved. And the trends are strengthening. For example, in the first three quarters of 2013, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth registered...

The strange-bedfellows alliance of the center-left PD and the center-right PdL has been weakened by votes of no-confidence in both houses of Parliament. Nevertheless, it has survived the ordeal, despite fears that the PD’s refusal to help the PdL’s founder, Silvio Berlusconi, to escape his latest legal troubles could bring an early end to the […]

In today’s highly competitive and quickly changing international marketplace, companies engaged in import/export operations must constantly assess efficiencies while seeking cost-saving opportunities. And due to evolving conditions, strategies that were not relevant years ago may be appropriate today. That’s why it’s important to consider the following five essential strategies for the years ahead.

After several decades of kinder, gentler compliance-focused assessments, Customs & Border Protection’s Office of Regulatory Audit still retains a “gotcha” import audit approach reminiscent of the 1980s and early 1990s in its enforcement arsenal. And, according to Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg sources, all importers—especially small and mid-sized enterprises (SMEs)—are cautioned to prepare for what is […]