Trends & Forecasts

When I crossed through Checkpoint Charlie from West Berlin to East Berlin in March 1990, I witnessed two worlds colliding. On one side stood a beautiful, economically flourishing metropolitan city; on the other, a gray landscape of economic failure. While witnessing the dismantling of the Berlin Wall was exhilarating, the stark contrast in living conditions between West and East Germany was sobering.

Today’s most critical challenges are impacting every American. These include the direction of globalization and Chinese relations...

There are several critical issues facing the United States today. These include the labor shortage and skills deficit, the disruption of supply chains, the new direction of globalization, fear of new Covid variants, and inflation, which is made worse by all these issues. In addition, there are many serious concerns caused by the Russia-Ukraine war...

Attempting to predict short-term fluctuations in inflation is extremely difficult. However, if you look at the evolution of globalization, which has a major impact on inflation, accurately predicting long-term inflation trends is a bit easier. So let me start with globalization and how it’s evolving.

The U.S. has had a bad military run recently. Rather than fight traditional wars and defeat conventional opponents, Washington attempted nation‐building at gunpoint. That is a daunting task anywhere and at any point in time. Especially problematic was America’s effort to transform Afghanistan, long heralded as the Graveyard of Empires.

There has never been a better time to show your employees that you appreciate them. In our previous article, 9 Critical Strategies to Attract and Retain New Workers, we mentioned that the U.S. economy has been improving, which has opened up a whole new set of problems such as labor shortages and skill deficits in...

A dearth of workers is slowing our recovery from the economic devastation wrought by COVID-19. Overly large unemployment insurance checks, an expanded welfare state and immigration restrictions have reduced the supply of willing workers. There are 9.2 million job openings nationwide and 9.3 million people unemployed. As a result, employers are hiking prices faster than...

2021 marks the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party and China is celebrating. Since Deng Xiaoping began economic reforms and opening up China in 1978, the country has lifted 800 million people out of poverty, according to the World Bank, and become the world’s second largest economy after the United States. But today, the direction of China’s reform process is unclear, it doesn’t always play by long-established international trade rules, and it’s presenting new ch

If you can’t find workers, you’re not alone. At each keynote speech I give, I ask the audience to raise their hands if it’s difficult to hire new employees. Just about everyone raises their hand. I then ask if they have trouble retaining them. Again, nearly everyone raises their hand.

Among the things learned during the COVID-19 pandemic is that our supply chains are on the verge of breaking. National borders that had receded into the background of a globalizing world have been thrust to the fore in the scramble to obtain life-saving Personal Protection Equipment (PPE) for those on the front lines of the […]

A few weeks ago, Senator Josh Hawley wrote a New York Times op‐ed calling for “abolishing” the World Trade Organization (WTO). I responded to Hawley’s piece here, pointing out the various ways that he had misunderstood the WTO. Hawley’s op‐ed was apparently intended to lay the foundation for the joint resolution he introduced to withdraw...

Rather like Adolf Hitler’s Thousand Year Reich that ended 988 years early, China’s guaranteed 50 years of freedom for Hong Kong has ended 27 years early. It’s been a good run since 1997, since Beijing left the territory mostly alone for longer than many people expected.

Many predicted that West Texas Intermediate crude oil could trade as low as $15 a barrel during the Saudi-Russia price war. Some even speculated it could hit $5 when figuring in the demand crater due to the global pandemic. No one predicted this. There simply isn’t a proper word to use here — unprecedented, catastrophic...

President Trump’s intention to persuade China to play by long-established international trade rules is commendable. But focusing on the U.S. trade deficit with China, and imposing tariffs to eliminate it, has proven ineffective. Now, the coronavirus has given Trump an opportunity to shelve that failed strategy and immediately eliminate tariffs on Chinese imports. This shot in the arm will likely be reciprocated by China, stimulate our economies, and give Trump the opportunity

After some fits and starts, Joe Biden has emerged from a crowded field as the front‐runner for the Democratic nomination. There’s still some politicking left to go, but let’s talk about what a Biden trade policy might look like if he is elected president. In this article, I’ll consider three things: (1) What Biden...

It was quite some time ago that we began to speculate about the role 3D printing might play in our modern society. As the technology really started to emerge around the middle of the last decade, we previewed the potential impact on American manufacturing and highlighted broad ideas, such as reduced costs and greater design […]

The immigration debate in the United States has obscured a host of neglected legislative issues. The anti-immigrant sentiment in the nation belabors the notion that immigration is an issue that only encompasses illegal border crossings. Rather, legal immigration impacts economic considerations as a net gain, perhaps well beyond the potential economic burdens of illegal migrant […]

Announcing his intentions to hit all remaining imports from China with tariffs, President Trump is now all-in on the trade war. This doesn’t bode well for Americans’ wallets, bilateral relations or the global economy.

One of the few hopeful, “glass-half-full” thoughts I had after Donald Trump won the election in 2016 was that the new president would prove to be the best salesman of free trade since Adam Smith. No, I wasn’t so deluded to think he’d articulate the case for free trade and commit himself to removing all […]

President Trump has called out China for unfairly subsidizing its state-owned enterprises, not enforcing intellectual property protections, placing trade restrictions on U.S. firms, and pressuring them to hand over technology in exchange for market access. If these problems are eliminated, more U.S. companies will invest there. But is this what President Trump wants?