Trends & Forecasts

Since taking over as president on a permanent basis in 2008, Raúl Castro has undertaken a self-described effort to “save” Cuba’s socialist system by introducing various market reforms. To date, that program has included the establishment of non-agricultural cooperatives, the legalization of private farms and small businesses, the recognition of private ownership of homes (and […]

When Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the LDP were returned to power in late 2012, the victory was attributed less to enthusiasm for the winners than to frustration with the incumbent DPJ. However, the LDP’s comeback was completed at upper-house elections held in July 2013, at which voters registered a clear vote of confidence in […]

The continued dominance of the ruling United Russia party was confirmed yet again at regional and local elections held on September 8. The opposition made a strong enough showing in major cities to suggest that President Vladimir Putin and his allies cannot take victory for granted in urban areas, but elsewhere, United Russia’s position appears […]

SPECIAL REPORT—The potential upside of a comprehensive Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreement to liberalize trade, investment, and regulatory barriers between the United States and the European Union is substantial. The economic benefits are estimated to be in the range of a $125 billion annual boost to GDP on each side of the Atlantic.

SPECIAL REPORT—The first half of 2013 has been an unusually turbulent period for companies doing business in China. Amidst an apparent economic slowdown, the new leadership has pursued a number of actions. This includes an anti-corruption drive, a government frugality campaign, and a stronger Internet crackdown. But that’s not all. We have seen the trial […]

SPECIAL REPORT—First elected German Chancellor in November 2005, Angela Merkel achieved a stunning victory through her second re-election on September 22nd. This is very important since Germany is the largest European Union (EU) economy, accounting for more than one-fifth of its gross domestic product (GDP), and the main bailout creditor to struggling European countries...

Since the global recession began in 2008, Europe has struggled. For example, last year the European Union (EU) which is comprised of 27 countries with a consumer base of approximately 500 million, registered -0.2 percent growth. Although its economy has improved, it remains vulnerable. Nonetheless, there is a considerable upside not reflected in these figures...

Earlier this year, the White House announced plans to begin negotiations with the European Union (EU) on a free trade agreement. If successfully concluded as currently envisioned, this deal would cover approximately 50 percent of global output, nearly 30 percent of world merchandise trade, and 20 percent of global foreign investment, according the OECD...

SPECIAL REPORT — Much attention recently has been paid to the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) in the wake of the high-profile investigation into the activities of Wal-Mart in Mexico, where it is alleged to have bribed foreign officials to expedite permits for its stores. Yet, the Wal-Mart situation is but one example of a […]

A decade-long trend toward an increasingly conservative makeup of all of Iran’s most powerful political institutions was disrupted at the presidential election held in June 2013. Hassan Rowhani, the lone moderate among the six candidates vying to succeed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, emerged the victor, winning slightly more than 50 percent of the first-round vote.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s minority coalition government is under pressure to restore public and investor confidence, as concerns surrounding the slowing pace of growth have more recently been compounded by the rupee’s alarming depreciation. A general election is required no later than the second quarter of 2014, and the latest opinion polls signal an abrupt […]

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s ideologically eclectic coalition government passed the first major test of its viability in early August, when the Knesset approved an austerity budget for 2013–2014 that includes a range of spending cuts and tax increases. The passage of a two-year spending plan has greatly increased the coalition’s chance of surviving until 2015, […]

Allegations of exorbitant claims for reimbursement of living expenses submitted by some senators from the governing CPC became a major problem for Prime Minister Stephen Harper after it was revealed that his chief of staff, Nigel Wright, had cut a check for $90,000 to one senator. Wright resigned, but Harper’s claim that he had no […]

The policy direction under President Xi Jinping will become clearer at the forthcoming Third Plenum of the ruling CPP in November, at which the outlines of the economic reform agenda for the next decade will be mapped out. Investors will be watching closely for indications of how the regime plans to engineer a shift from […]

SPECIAL REPORT — The Syrian civil war appears to have at least temporarily reached a point of stalemate, with neither rebel forces nor the military and allied militias capable of making a decisive push for territory that could potentially turn the tide for either side. The offensive launched by the fractious rebel camp in late […]

Since the beginning of the Great Uncertainty — the period that began with the “stimulus,” the auto bailout, the push for another major entitlement program, Dodd-Frank, the regulatory dam burst, the subsidies for favored industries, and the proliferation of distinctly anti-business rhetoric from the White House — President Obama has appeared puzzled by the dearth...

SPECIAL REPORT—Emerging markets continue to grow considerably faster than the United States. And Developing Asia’s economic growth is stronger than other regions. In fact, it is anticipated to achieve a GDP growth rate of 7.1 percent this year and 7.7 percent by 2018, according to IMF data. Much of Developing Asia’s relatively strong performance today...

SPECIAL REPORT—Over the last decade, much of Latin American growth was supported by strong international demand, especially for natural resources and minerals. And over time, China became a more important commodity customer, which boosted world prices. However, as the global economy has slowed in recent years, Chinese demand for natural resources also has decreased, while...

Monthly U.S. headlines trumpeting the death of inflation hide a painful truth for American families: rapidly rising food prices. News reports rarely mention this pain because economists’ preferred inflation metric, so-called “core CPI,” omits both food and energy due to concerns about their volatility. Although this omission might make sense from a purely economic perspective, […]

The broad coalition government formed in the aftermath of two snap elections held in May and June 2012 has not held up well under the strain of implementing a painful austerity program demanded by the EU and the IMF as a condition for two packages of bailout loans. The coalition was already leaking support when […]