Public support for the governing Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) has rebounded a bit since mid-2012, but Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s party will have to boost its numbers further before it can be confident of winning another majority at an election required by October 2015. In that regard, the CPC is unlikely to repeat its uncharacteristically strong 2011 performance in the Atlantic provinces, where support for the Tories has dropped especially sharply since the general election, and has remained stuck at a low level even as the party’s national standing has recently improved.
Although the PRI regained the presidency at elections held in July 2012, the party fell short of winning a majority in either legislative chamber. In addition, its members are far from united in their support for reforms that the new president, Enrique Peña Nieto, claims will deliver average annual real GDP growth of 6 percent.
The two-stage municipal elections held in October 2012 were closely watched as a gauge of the effect of a notorious vote-buying scandal on the popularity of the main governing PT. In that regard, the results suggest that the PT remains in a strong position to retain control of the presidency in 2014.
In early November, Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag presented the government’s blueprint for a new constitutional order to the Parliament. It includes proposals to transfer responsibility for appointing Cabinet members from the prime minister to the president, and to eliminate the power of the Parliament to influence personnel decisions by means of votes of no-confidence and censure motions.
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