
James A. Dorn
It’s very disappointing that the Senate could not find the will to attach a reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank of the United States (“Exim”) to the only “must pass” piece of legislation in July. Now, Exim will not be in a position to help American companies with new projects until September or October at the earliest. And the longer we go without an Export Credit Agency, the bleaker the outlook.
If there is one thing you can count on in global currency markets, and in emerging markets in particular, it is exchange rate volatility. The present sell-off in emerging market stocks and currencies, as evidenced by the chart below compiled with data from Oanda.com, is certainly eye opening, but in no way unprecedented. What is unprecedented, however, is the grim prognosis perhaps facing these nations’ economies.
Many are unaware that Bloomberg predicts the Philippines to become the second fastest growing economy in the world in 2015 — a stunning achievement for a country that has for many years been considered an under performer. Since 2010, GDP growth under President Benigno S. Aquino III was an average of 6.2 percent — the highest in four decades, and coinciding with the Great Recession.
Last year Narendra Modi won an unusually strong majority in India’s parliamentary election. Previously barred from receiving a U.S. visa because of charges that he incited sectarian violence, Modi visited the U.S. last September and was warmly welcomed by both the Obama administration and Indian-Americans. He was treated as the leader of the next great power.
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