
James A. Dorn
It took COVID-19 several weeks to mass migrate from China to Europe, but the continent is now awash in the virus. The pandemic has fully arrived in Italy and Spain. Other nations await the disease, hoping to slow its spread. It will kill many Europeans. It also might kill the European Union, at least the idea of a European community in any meaningful sense.
President Trump’s intention to persuade China to play by long-established international trade rules is commendable. But focusing on the U.S. trade deficit with China, and imposing tariffs to eliminate it, has proven ineffective. Now, the coronavirus has given Trump an opportunity to shelve that failed strategy and immediately eliminate tariffs on Chinese imports. This shot in the arm will likely be reciprocated by China, stimulate our economies, and give Trump the opportunity to chart a better course. Let me explain.
After some fits and starts, Joe Biden has emerged from a crowded field as the front‐runner for the Democratic nomination. There’s still some politicking left to go, but let’s talk about what a Biden trade policy might look like if he is elected president. In this article, I’ll consider three things: (1) What Biden has said about trade during the Democratic primary campaign; (2) what the Obama administration did on trade when Biden was vice‐president; and (3) what issues Biden would face and what he might do as president (this section is very speculative!).
The Covid 19 outbreak set the field, but the direct cause of oil’s crash last week reads from an old playbook. WTI has been on a freefall losing over $16 in two days, prompting a wider stock market sell off that created another Black Monday as the Dow dove 7% in a single day. The day saw trading halted for a 15 minute period in an effort to stop the bleeding, but once it resumed, so did the panic. All indicators suggest it will get worse.
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