
James A. Dorn
The turmoil that erupted in Juba last month threatens to ignite a full scale ethnic civil war. If peace talks fail, a potential genocide may even result. Certainly, political risks for foreign investors and neighboring governments would increase under such circumstances. Given South Sudan’s position as a regional oil producing country, a civil war would also close transnational energy corridors throughout Central/East Africa and fuel regional instability.
Park Geun-hye’s first year in office was a bumpy one, marked by disruptive political scandals, worrisome tensions in relations with North Korea, and back-tracking on key components of her signature “economic democratization” agenda that have weakened her popularity and undermined her credibility. This new year is unlikely to be any easier, even assuming the continued recovery of the economy.
On December 10, the Nicaraguan Congress approved a package of more than three dozen changes to the constitution. President Daniel Ortega claims the reforms will lay the foundation for a system of "direct democracy." But the president's critics contend that the result will be the perpetuation of Ortega's hold on the presidency and the further concentration of political power in the executive branch.
Portugal’s Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho’s coalition government continues to hold together despite tensions generated by the negative impact of austerity-fatigue on popular support for both the prime minister’s PSD and its junior partner, the CDS-PP. The partner’s resolve has been reinforced by signs of economic improvement, including a revival of tourism and exports that have contributed to a downward trend in unemployment and helped keep the deficit-reduction and debt-consolidation programs on track.
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