Trends & Forecasts

Combined, American exports of goods ($1.56 trillion) and services ($630 billion) reached nearly $2.2 trillion in 2012. This represents an increase of almost $93 billion or 4.4 percent over 2011. From 2011 through 2012, 35 states achieved merchandise export growth, 29 hit new records, and 20 of those states experienced growth of at least 5...

China continues to suffer a labor shortage in its key coastal manufacturing regions. This, no doubt, is impacting U.S. and other foreign companies operating in China. But the labor shortage is not due to a lack of available workers. Instead, it is prompted by Chinese government policies, as well as prevailing work and living conditions […]

<p>Tax reform is on the minds of elected officials in Washington and in many state capitals. If and when reform is passed, the likelihood that big business will benefit is high. Unfortunately, although small business represents 99.7 percent of all American firms, as defined by the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA), it’s unlikely they will [&hellip;]</p>

Approaching the midpoint of the current four-year parliamentary term, political conditions in Thailand remain generally calm. However, the recent gubernatorial election in the capital, at which the incumbent, a member of the opposition DP, only narrowly fended off a challenge from the candidate of the governing PTP, highlights the persistence of deep political divisions. If [&hellip;]

The possibility of Cyprus becoming the Achilles Heel of the eurozone and causing its eventual downfall has been heightened by the botched resolution to its payments crisis. This comes at a time of increased regional risk aversion as the eurozone’s plight has re-emerged on investors’ radars with Germany (and other, strong countries) seemingly more reluctant [&hellip;]

The Kenyan presidential race was a game of building the broadest and most cohesive coalition of ethnic voting blocks, where kinship trumped detailed policy programs on the voters’ list of priorities. As such, Kenyatta’s victory brings little changes to the business environment with regard to the government’s inclination to raise taxes on foreign companies or [&hellip;]

Public support for the governing Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) has rebounded a bit since mid-2012, but Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s party will have to boost its numbers further before it can be confident of winning another majority at an election required by October 2015. In that regard, the CPC is unlikely to repeat its [&hellip;]

The two-stage municipal elections held in October 2012 were closely watched as a gauge of the effect of a notorious vote-buying scandal on the popularity of the main governing PT. In that regard, the results suggest that the PT remains in a strong position to retain control of the presidency in 2014.

Italian voter's rejection of the austerity program carried out by the technocrat administration may deliver one of several options:

In the past decade, Latin America has appeared more visibly on the radar screens of many companies considering expansion of their global footprint. More of these companies today are deciding to set up manufacturing facilities, distribution centers or services operations in this market. Since 2003, nearly 8,000 international companies have established new “greenfield” operations in [&hellip;]

Mali’s risks remain heightened as its conflict continues to evolve. French-led international military intervention since 11 January has successfully repelled rebel forces to the more remote northern regions. Yet the country remains vulnerable to reprisals from both secular Tuareg separatist fighters and Islamist guerrillas linked to Al-Qaeda, which have regrouped among the safety of the [&hellip;]

Prior to the 1990s, it was acceptable for business and technical professionals not to fully understand the workings of intellectual property (IP). In fact, IP was largely viewed as an isolated topic for legal or research and development departments to handle. In turn, many innovative and high-tech firms didn’t even file for patents. However, due [&hellip;]

The voters have spoken. The U.S. election of November 2012 resulted in very little visible change — Democrats retain control of the White House and the Senate, Republicans the House of Representatives and most governors’ mansions — 30 as of January. The U.S. remains a nation split fairly evenly along party lines, just as it [&hellip;]

<p>Executives often ask me what the latest trends I see developing in the leadership field are. One trend I always point to is a widespread shift to “applied leadership.” Applied leadership is the practical and tangible implementation of leadership skills specific to a given work environment or business initiative. It is based on actual, hands-on [&hellip;]</p>

In early November, Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag presented the government’s blueprint for a new constitutional order to the Parliament. It includes proposals to transfer responsibility for appointing Cabinet members from the prime minister to the president, and to eliminate the power of the Parliament to influence personnel decisions by means of votes of no-confidence [&hellip;]

Libya’s first democratically elected government officially took office in early November, with the swearing-in of 20 Cabinet ministers appointed by Prime Minister Ali Zidan. The prime minister took care to include nominees favored by the main secular and Islamist blocs, the NFA and Justice and Construction, respectively, and also included figures from eastern Libya, an [&hellip;]

In late 2012, the center-left government led by President François Hollande was dealt a major blow to its economic policy credibility. The constitutional council ruled that a 75 percent income tax rate imposed on individuals earning more than $1.3 million annually was not consistent with the French ideal of equality before the law. The very [&hellip;]

After last year’s leadership transition, many U.S. firms doing business in China hoped to see an expansion of trade and an easing of regulations in 2013. The sudden openness of the Chinese media and Xi Jinping’s apparent crackdown on corruption has fueled this speculation. Unfortunately, this year is shaping up to be nearly as vexing [&hellip;]

The Honduran government appears to be headed for another political crisis that is in some respects dismayingly similar to the events that led to the forced ouster of President Manuel Zelaya in June 2009, an episode from which the country has yet to fully recover. This time, however, it is not the Congress and the [&hellip;]

As expected, Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping has been chosen to head the new group of leaders that will rule China for the next 10 years. At a CCP congress held in November, Xi was named as both party leader and chairman of the Central Military Commission, and he will replace Hu Jintao as national [&hellip;]