
Daniel Griswold
The recent U.S. Treasury’s semi-annual report on the exchange rate policies of China and other major trading partners is an exercise in intellectual gymnastics. The report reiterates that China was indeed a currency manipulator, as Treasury declared in August 2019, but then stated it has magically ceased to be one just prior to the two nations signing the “Phase One” trade deal in Washington.
In 2019, the U.S. unemployment rate reached record lows while the stock market hit record highs. But not everyone has benefitted. According to a recent report by the Pew Research Center, most Americans believe the economy is helping the rich, while hurting the middle class and poor. What does this mean for the future of U.S. capitalism?
A novel feature of the Trump administration’s “Phase 1” trade deal with China announced December 13, is that it would require China to increase its purchase of US goods and services by a total of $200 billion in the next two years. It’s a demand that, even if met, won’t accomplish President Donald Trump’s China-trade goals of promoting US exports and liberalizing the Chinese economy.
Americans are about to enter the third full year of President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff regime, which aims to promote US manufacturing, protect key industries, and prompt other nations to reduce their trade barriers. So, it’s a good time to stop and ask whether tariffs are producing the results desired by the president and other supporters of his trade policies.
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