
Daniel Griswold
On January 1, 1997, Hong Kong, effectively seized by Great Britain in war a century before, reverted to Chinese rule. Only recently liberated from the madness of Mao Zedong's rule, Beijing promised to preserve Hong Kong's "separate system" for 50 years. Alas, the People's Republic of China (PRC) terminated the political regime based on historic British liberties 27 years early, with passage of the National Security Law in June 2020. The PRC's increasingly repressive Xi Jinping government created a police state in the Special Administrative Region as suffocating as that on the mainland.
There are several critical issues facing the United States today. These include the labor shortage and skills deficit, the disruption of supply chains, the new direction of globalization, fear of new Covid variants, and inflation, which is made worse by all these issues. In addition, there are many serious concerns caused by the Russia-Ukraine war and the fallout of China continuing to support Russia.
Give President Joe Biden credit for talking with Vladimir Putin over the latter’s demands for security guarantees. Yet the way forward appears blocked by Moscow’s insistence on assurances which Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman declared to be “simply nonstarters.” Russian officials were equally blunt. “Our patience has run out,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: “Everyone understands that the situation is not improving. The potential for conflict is growing.”
Attempting to predict short-term fluctuations in inflation is extremely difficult. However, if you look at the evolution of globalization, which has a major impact on inflation, accurately predicting long-term inflation trends is a bit easier. So let me start with globalization and how it’s evolving.
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