Topic Category: Economy

Federal Reserve, the world’s most powerful central bank, has used unconventional monetary policy since 2008 to suppress interest rates, encourage risk taking, support asset prices, fund government debt, and allocate credit. In doing so, the Fed has created one asset bubble after another, harmed savers, incentivized big government, and misallocated credit.

The collapse of the price of oil, turmoil in the global economy, and ongoing upheaval in the Middle East are sending mixed signals for what lies ahead for the U.S. economy, and by extension, the real estate market, even though the U.S. is one of the few countries to enjoy a genuinely optimistic outlook for 2015.

For the first time since the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, China may fail to meet its real GDP growth target for a given year, which in 2014 was set at 7.5 percent. If the growth figure comes in at 7.3 percent, as expected, Beijing is likely to lower the target for 2015 to 7 percent. That is a far cry from the double-digit growth experienced for more than three decades following the 1978 opening to the outside world.

No country has received more praise and criticism than China. For the last thirty years, China has become the second largest country in the world. With its surprisingly high growth, it has captured much attention. To some outside of China, it is rather difficult to understand the rapid development. This economic success, however, did not occur by chance.

President Dilma Rousseff won a runoff election held in late October with 51.6 percent, after failing to win an outright majority at a first-round of voting earlier in the month. The PT-led coalition retained its majorities in both congressional chambers at legislative elections held simultaneously with the first round of presidential voting. And the trimming of the number of parties in the governing alliance from 17 to just nine may facilitate the process of steering legislation through the Congress.

The launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect takes China a step closer to capital freedom. Before the new trading link, officially known as the Mutual Market Access (MMA) program, investment opportunities for foreign investors have been limited to a select group of fund managers. Now all foreign investors can directly buy shares listed in Shanghai via the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Likewise, capital is now freer to move southward into Hong Kong.

Every few months news report claim we’re on the verge of another dot com bust or too much money is being pumped into too many start-ups that are destined to fail. These reports often are greatly exaggerated and demonstrate a total lack of understanding of the current startup market.

Since August 2011, the value of the U.S. dollar has continued to rise. In the past, a strengthening dollar meant imported sweaters from Bangladesh would be cheaper. In turn, it was anticipated that American retailers would buy more of them, boosting the trade deficit. On the export side, a rising dollar was a curse for an American producer, who’s overseas prices would go up pushing sales down. But today, the impact isn’t so clear.

Animal spirits is a phrase coined by economist John Maynard Keynes in the 1930s in reference to risk taking, which is an essential part of any economic and financial system. Choosing which risks to take and which to avoid determines the fate of economies, companies and investors. In the 1930s, there was obviously a reluctance to take on a lot of risk, thus the lack of animal spirits. Similarities exist today.