Economy

It’s a presidential election year so the quadrennially-maligned U.S. trade deficit is taking its lumps. Donald Trump says the trade deficit means the United States is losing at trade, and it’s losing because U.S. trade negotiators aren’t smart enough. Bernie Sanders believes the trade deficit deprives the economy of production and good jobs. Meanwhile, some […]

In the presidential debates and on the campaign trail, U.S. trade policy has taken a beating. Trump would slap a 45 percent tax on all imports from China. Sanders claims that trade agreements have been “a disaster for the American worker.” Cruz perpetuates the myth that Congress has ceded its authority on trade to President […]

In a rare instance of bi-partisan cooperation, Democrats and Republicans voted to lift the ban on crude oil exports on December 18, 2015 as part of a budget deal for 2016. At present, U.S exporters are allowed to sell oil to Canada, Switzerland, and Spain, with smaller amounts (less than a million barrels annually) to […]

<p>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the world in 2016 will reach 3.5 percent, slightly better than was projected this year. What are the factors impacting growth? And how will our major trading partners perform?</p>

Two months after negotiators reached a deal six years in the making, the Trans-Pacific Partnership is in trouble. Prospects for ratification of this deal by this Congress appear to be somewhere between questionable and doubtful. That could change in the months ahead, but if the TPP spills over to the next Congress and administration — [&hellip;]

The sharp defeat of Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party in the state of Bihar has put the prime minister’s reform plan and political legacy at risk. Despite his overwhelming victory in last year’s national election, his government has failed to overhaul the legal barriers and regulatory excesses which have left an economy full of entrepreneurial...

<p>I just gave the keynote address at a conference for high school administrators and teachers of career academies and vocational schools on Long Island, New York. It’s one I particularly enjoyed because I have been an enthusiastic advocate for technical and career schools for many years as they quickly and affordably prepare students for careers [&hellip;]</p>

For baffling reasons, Russia is perceived as a world power that rivals America. Look beneath the veneer of Putin’s bluster and you’ll find a country in deep financial distress that is on the verge of economic collapse. The culprit is oil. The price of a barrel of oil has been cut roughly in half since...

The rupiah is plumbing the depths it last visited in 1998 during the Asian financial crisis. The chart below of the rupiah’s value against the U.S. dollar tells the tale. Although the rupiah’s recent plunge is not as dramatic as the post July 1997 float of the rupiah, it is ugly nevertheless.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered his second Independence Day speech in mid-August, and used the opportunity to lay out his government’s priorities for the remainder of his term, which ends in 2019. Largely missing from the address was the optimistic promise of sweeping reforms that would transform the Indian economy, a topic that was the [&hellip;]

China’s stock markets and currency recently incurred precipitous declines. These problems are reflective of much bigger issues that have allowed many Chinese to confuse a rising stock market with a healthy one — and an economic system with a sustainable one. Moving forward, China’s brand of one-party capitalism will continue to incur inescapable difficulties...

In mid-July, Bank of Canada Gov. Stephen Poloz affirmed that the country’s GDP contracted for a second consecutive quarter in the April–June 2015 period, technically meeting the definition of a recession. That is very bad news for Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s CPC government, which will be seeking re-election to a fourth consecutive term at parliamentary [&hellip;]

The plunging Shanghai Stock Exchange and the sudden reversal in the yuan’s appreciation have caused fears to spread beyond China’s borders. Is something wrong with the world’s growth locomotive? In a word, yes. The most reliable approach for the determination of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and the balance of payments is the monetary approach.

In June 2015, employers added 223,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell from 5.5 percent to 5.3 percent — the lowest rate since April 2008. In July, employers added another 215,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate stayed at 5.3 percent. Why would adding about the same number of jobs lower the unemployment in June but [&hellip;]

The surprise move by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to weaken the Chinese yuan by nearly two percent against the U.S. dollar on August 11th was met globally with shock. Red ink was flowing on Wall Street and on stock markets worldwide. The effects are sure to hit Main Street in the coming weeks [&hellip;]

Although President Xi Jinping’s position at the head of the CCP is secure, the potential for possible political instability was highlighted when the country’s stock market lost roughly one-third of its value in June and July. The government intervened strongly to help stop the slide, cutting interest rates and transaction fees, suspending IPOs, and authorizing [&hellip;]

Before this year, nobody would have mentioned Greece, Puerto Rico and Illinois in the same breath. At one time they had little in common. Now they are linked by failed economies. The modern Greek state, which was established in 1830 following the war of independence from the Ottoman Empire, traces its roots to the civilization...

Economic growth in the U.S. continues to suffer for a variety of reasons. For one, our antiquated tax code punishes U.S. companies and inhibits corporate investment here in the United States. How bad is it? The federal corporate tax rate, at 35 percent, when added to the average estimated state rate of 4.1 percent, brings...

It’s very disappointing that the Senate could not find the will to attach a reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank of the United States (“Exim”) to the only “must pass” piece of legislation in July. Now, Exim will not be in a position to help American companies with new projects until September or October at the [&hellip;]

If there is one thing you can count on in global currency markets, and in emerging markets in particular, it is exchange rate volatility. The present sell-off in emerging market stocks and currencies, as evidenced by the chart below compiled with data from Oanda.com, is certainly eye opening, but in no way unprecedented. What is [&hellip;]