Trends & Forecasts

In a rare instance of bi-partisan cooperation, Democrats and Republicans voted to lift the ban on crude oil exports on December 18, 2015 as part of a budget deal for 2016. At present, U.S exporters are allowed to sell oil to Canada, Switzerland, and Spain, with smaller amounts (less than a million barrels annually) to […]

Two months after negotiators reached a deal six years in the making, the Trans-Pacific Partnership is in trouble. Prospects for ratification of this deal by this Congress appear to be somewhere between questionable and doubtful. That could change in the months ahead, but if the TPP spills over to the next Congress and administration — […]

On July 20, Cuba formally reopened its embassy in Washington for the first time in 54 years, a step that was reciprocated by the U.S. in mid-August. However, it will be some time yet before relations are fully normalized. The Republican-dominated U.S. Congress has made clear that it will not approve the lifting of the […]

Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered his second Independence Day speech in mid-August, and used the opportunity to lay out his government’s priorities for the remainder of his term, which ends in 2019. Largely missing from the address was the optimistic promise of sweeping reforms that would transform the Indian economy, a topic that was the […]

In mid-July, Bank of Canada Gov. Stephen Poloz affirmed that the country’s GDP contracted for a second consecutive quarter in the April–June 2015 period, technically meeting the definition of a recession. That is very bad news for Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s CPC government, which will be seeking re-election to a fourth consecutive term at parliamentary […]

Influential members of the Saudi Arabian government believe that the United States — the kingdom’s most valuable strategic ally since 1945 — has abandoned Riyadh on a host of regional issues, most notably Iran’s nuclear program. As the Saudis respond by seeking to enhance their political and economic relations with countries other than the United […]

The United States is currently engaged in a number of far-reaching trade talks. However these agreements end up, Americans at least can rest assured that their economic interests are well represented … at least by the foreign negotiators. To be sure, the U.S. negotiators in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and […]

The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to forestall interest rate increases should give Congress the impetus to pass the Trans-Pacific Partnership on behalf of the U.S. economy. This clear sign by the Fed that U.S. economic growth continues to underimpress should have our representatives in Washington looking for ways to spur consumer activity. Free trade agreements […]

Media outlets love to highlight the next big thing. Trend spotters love to say they know about it, and investment bankers love to bet on it. As a twenty five year Silicon Valley veteran, I’m always astonished on how often they miss what’s big. That’s probably why, when the next big thing comes out, most […]

More than one year after seizing control of the government in a coup, the military shows no signs of relinquishing its hold on power. In April, Thailand’s junta lifted the martial law that had been in effect since last May. However, that move was not a step toward reform. Instead, the prime minister was given […]

To Secure Trade Promotion Authority last month, President Obama and Republican congressional leadership had to pay off Washington’s protectionism lobby. Part of the payment was enactment of the American Trade Enforcement Effectiveness Act, which reduces the burden of proof on domestic industries seeking protection from import competition under the U.S. Antidumping and Countervailing Duty laws.

Remember the dot.com era in the U.S., especially 1999 to March 2000? Technology stocks ruled, valuations were outrageous, the economy was entering a new paradigm and “this time is different” justified prices. The Chinese markets have experienced the same hyperbolic price increases in the last 12 months.

New signs of life have begun to emerge in China’s restive domestic M&A market. The past years of relative quiet are giving way to political and economic reforms and China’s new normal economy. For example, at the end of 2014, 1,536 transactions were closed for an average value of $131 million.

In the works are two new major free trade agreements: the Trans-Pacific Partnership involving the United States and 11 other Pacific-bordering nations, and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the U.S. and European Union. But the question that continues to be asked is this: Are these agreements good for the United States?

On May 22, 2015, the U.S. Senate passed the Bipartisan Congressional Trade Priorities and Accountability Act, better known as Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), by a vote of 62–37. At the same time—and in the same vote—the Senate passed the Trade Adjustment Assistance Enhancement Act (TAA). The bills were passed, respectively, as Title 1 and Title […]

The myth of decline dominates the narrative about U.S. manufacturing. Yet, the preponderance of evidence indicates that U.S. manufacturing, relative to the past and relative to other countries’ manufacturing sectors, excels by the metrics that speak to its current and future prospects. But it could be doing even better if Congress made some simple changes […]

For most U.S. business owners, it makes sense to put foreign invoicing and receivables in U.S. dollars. It’s simple and manageable. However, in today’s volatile foreign exchange market, this strategy may not be the ideal option for a number of reasons. As a result, the decision to invoice foreign customers in U.S. dollars should be […]

The skepticism was evident in conservative talk-show host Laura Ingraham’s voice when she referred to the working relationship between President Obama and Senate Majority Leader McConnell as a “burgeoning bromance.” Her sentiment is shared by a number of Republicans in Congress, who are unhappy that Senate and House leadership is working with the president to […]

The last several months have been a turbulent time for President Enrique Peña Nieto. Perceptions of a lack of urgency on the part of the federal administration following the disappearance of dozens of students in the state of Guerrero in September 2014, and evidence that police and political figures affiliated with the governing PRI colluded […]

On Christmas Eve 1968, NASA astronaut Bill Anders, orbiting the moon on board Apollo 8, took the first photo of Earth rising over the horizon of another celestial body. Known as Earthrise, that photo is widely regarded as one of the most iconic photos of the 20th Century and is believed by many to have […]