Trends & Forecasts

I often hear people talk about their difficulties in finding a meaningful job or keeping up with increasing healthcare, housing and education costs. These concerns, along with rising income inequality and a shrinking middle class, are provoking anger. For many, trade and immigration have become convenient villains. But that narrative is wrong. Let me tel...

On the campaign trail, Donald Trump vowed to strengthen enforcement of existing trade rules and negotiate better trade deals than his predecessors had. With his national security tariffs on steel and aluminum, his safeguard tariffs on washing machines and solar components, his broad trade war with China, and the looming specter of new barriers for […]

American free-market capitalism has generated the greatest economic growth the world has ever seen. At the core of its brilliance is its ability to create incentives to produce solutions to problems and to distribute those solutions worldwide. In doing so, it has paved the way for tremendous gains in efficiency and productivity while lifting millions...

In President Trump’s reckoning, international trade is a zero-sum game with distinct winners and losers. Exports are Team America’s points. Imports are the foreign team’s points. The trade account is the scoreboard, and the deficit on that scoreboard proves that the home team is losing at trade. Accordingly, the president considers blocking imports and promoting […]

Today, two seemingly opposite trends are gaining steam. The latest version of globalization is accelerating. Yet, at the same time, the United States and other countries are becoming more protectionist by erecting trade barriers at an alarming rate. What is the impact on the American economy and jobs?

With six months and counting before the UK-EU divorce becomes official, Britons understandably are frustrated by the absence of post-Brexit clarity. Genuine concern, lingering misgivings about the referendum, and a series of government missteps have invited justified criticism, but also heaps of hyperbole and fear-mongering from politicians and opinion leaders across the ideological spectrum.

Last week President Trump announced that he’ll impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum of 25 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Since the U.S. steel industry has suffered over the last few decades, this action might seem like a good idea — but is it? Here’s the reality...

When exporting, importing, investing abroad or establishing strategic alliances with foreign producers, it’s critical to understand the hidden risks. If not, an unethical supplier can result in endless lawsuits and poor market opportunities can generate tremendous losses. On the other hand, correctly grasping foreign market wants, needs and abilities can lead to great success...

“Designed by Apple in California; Assembled in China” are the words engraved on the back of Apple’s ubiquitous iPods, iPads, and iPhones. Might that soon change? Foxconn, the Taiwan-headquartered company that does Apple’s assembling in China, announced last week that it will invest up to $10 billion in production facilities in Wisconsin.

I have a real problem with progressives and others that claim that America’s wealth threshold has already been reached and we have nowhere else to go but down. I couldn’t disagree more.

Scapegoating trade for problems real and imagined has been a prominent part of American electoral politics for 25 years. So, during the campaign, when candidate Donald Trump referred to the North American Free Trade Agreement as “the worst trade deal ever negotiated,” his rhetoric wasn’t especially alarming.

Trade frictions are nothing new to the U.S.-China relationship. Over the years they’ve ebbed and flowed, but were managed with enough deft to avoid major meltdowns. That seems likely to change under President Donald Trump, an economic nationalist who sees trade as a zero-sum game and the United States emerging “the winner” of a trade […]

If patriotism is the last refuge of scoundrels, where will President Trump turn when his “America First” policies lay waste to the very people he professes to be helping? The ideas conjured by “Buy American” may appeal to many of President Trump’s supporters, but the phrase is merely a euphemism for doling political spoils, featherbedding, […]

Media and social media have been percolating – mostly with invective – over President-elect Trump’s “deal” to keep Carrier and its 1,000 jobs from moving to Mexico. I am among the many critics of this ad hoc, interventionist approach to retaining or attracting companies to perform value-added, job-creating activities in the United States.

Many factors are impacting economic growth. And volatility tops the list. According to a McKinsey Global Survey of executives, “Over the next five years nearly all respondents expect a disruption in the global economy due to volatility. And they are much likelier now — 43 percent, up from 29 percent in 2013...

In the American manufacturing sector, perception and reality often become confused. One reason: American manufacturing employment has declined from a high of 19.5 million workers in 1979 to 12.3 million today. In turn, many assume the U.S. industry has become hollowed out. Another reason: shoppers often claim they see few “Made in America” products on...

The oil industry, and perhaps the global economy, is standing at a crossroads. Down one path, the storm is over — and it has been a major storm. Tens of thousands of jobs lost, billions of dollars in capital evaporated, and the promise of energy independence broken. Yet down this path is the promise of […]

The U.S. Labor Department announced job growth of 215,000 for March in line with expectations. Given a working-age population of over 200 million, it doesn’t seem to be a significant number of jobs. But 215,000 new jobs are the net increase of many moving parts. Annually, the U.S. creates a little less than 13 million […]

Americans have a love-hate relationship with international trade. Every day we enjoy its fruits, which include better and more affordable products; access to a larger pool of customers, suppliers and capital; and greater employment and business opportunities with foreign companies operating in the United States. Yet many of us cheer when politicians take to the […]

In the presidential debates and on the campaign trail, U.S. trade policy has taken a beating. Trump would slap a 45 percent tax on all imports from China. Sanders claims that trade agreements have been “a disaster for the American worker.” Cruz perpetuates the myth that Congress has ceded its authority on trade to President […]